Latin America is undergoing substantial change, with 14 out of its 18 nations going to the polls between 2017 and 2019. This is no minor thing for this 600 million people continent which, for its most part, is celebrating the 200th anniversary since gaining independence from Spain and Portugal (although some nations such as Suriname and Guyana gained independence from The Netherlands and Britain much later, as did Cuba from Spain first and later from the United States).
In the southern part of the region, Argentina and Chile are transitioning from pro-left to pro-market leadership. Prospects for an economic recovery look cautiously bright for Argentina following President Mauricio Macri’s firm win at the mid-term elections in October 2017, which dissipated any chance of a medium-term left-leaning party comeback and can give momentum to economic recovery.
In Chile, pro-business Sebastian Piñera has succeeded centre-left Michelle Bachelet as President following elections held in December, signalling a shift to growth-centric policies over the next four years. Piñera’s return to the Presidency (he held office previously between 2010 and 2014) means that for most of the twenty first century Chile has been ruled by two leaders (Piñera himself and Bachelet before him who occupied the Presidency between 2006-2010 and again between 2014-2018).
The situation looks much more ambiguous in Brazil where political scandals surrounding centre-right President Michel Temer are slowing the pace of reform ahead of critical presidential elections in October 2018. After two consecutive years of deep economic recession, the country returned to growth in 2017 and the IMF is projecting further (but timid) growth in 2018, acknowledging the risk emanating from the corridors of Congress and the activity of corruption prosecutors and courts.
Former President Lula da Silva intends to run for President despite being sentenced to twelve years for corruption. Lula retains a great deal of support and, were he allowed to run, he would be a clear contender. But with an open and ongoing court battle, which could end with him in prison, his participation in the October elections is very much in doubt. According to a number of polls this leaves the race wide open and with no clear contender in a country where political parties are counted by the tens.
Moving to Colombia, the country will hold its first parliamentarian and presidential elections since reaching a peace accord with the FARC in 2016. The contested accord gave the FARC an automatic right to hold 10 seats in Congress and the right to campaign for more seats. But this was dependent on passing an electoral reform that has stalled amidst political division and a constant anti-FARC campaign of supporters of former conservative President Alvaro Uribe.
With very little electoral support for its leader, and amid congressional paralysis and the resumption of police activity, the FARC have announced their intention to boycott the election. The polls meanwhile point to four possible contenders from all sides of the political spectrum in what is likely to be a heated and difficult campaign for Colombia. Although it is too early to reach conclusions, the future looks greyer for this South American nation that only a year ago seemed ready to move past its darkest years.
In Venezuela, the political situation remains very unstable and it risks developing into a full-blown civil conflict with potential regional spill-overs. The economy is in tatters with some private estimates putting the inflation rate in the hundreds if not thousands, and a free-falling economy that registered more than a 15% GDP contraction in 2017. Some of the most renown conflict analysts are watching the situation with serious concern, going as far as to list Venezuela as one of the top 10 countries to watch in 2018.
Mediated talks between President Maduro’s government and opposition parties ended in February with a polemic outcome that the opposition and foreign observers have described as being heavily in favour of the government’s interests. The opposition has vouched to boycott the April 2018 presidential election and in response Maduro is planning to bring legislative, state and municipal elections in line with the April vote in an attempt to govern without ‘electoral disruption’. Human rights groups have also denounced serious abuses and the US is considering applying oil sanctions.
Further up north and closer to the US, far-left Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is leading the polls ahead of the July 2018 general elections in Mexico, in what represents a reverse of the political trend seen in South America. AMLO, as he is known in Mexico, is a shrewd politician and social galvaniser who broke off from the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD in its Spanish acronym) – which rules the capital Mexico City – to form his own Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional (Movement for National Regeneration).
AMLO is feared by investors but cherished by large parts of a young electorate who has grown tired of corruption and is disappointed with the poor economic outcome of the battery of liberalising reforms approved by current President Enrique Peña Nieto. AMLO has remained ambiguous over the future of NAFTA but at some point in the near future he will need to pronounce himself and take a stance. If AMLO wins the election, Mexico would join the US in having a leader with a known aversion to free trade, putting the very existence and future of NAFTA in doubt.
Finally, 2018 will be the first time in six decades that Cuba will cease to be ruled by a member of the Castro family, at least officially. In March the Cuban people will elect a National Assembly which will in turn elect a new leader in April. This is not a liberal vote as only one party – the Communist Party – is allowed to take part in the election, and nor will Raul Castro disappear from the Cuban scene, as he will remain the head of the Communist Party and, many will argue, possibly the leader of the Cuban Army.
