When UK voters decided in June 2016 to leave the EU they thought they had the upper hand or that divorcing the other half would be an easy task. Yet after months of failed negotiations they have come to realise that their reality is more unpleasant than what they originally conceived. For the remaining EU bloc it is no different. They thought that the UK was shooting itself in the foot and that their decision to leave would reinvigorate the European integration project amongst the remaining member states.
Unfortunately the true reality – unlike the perceived original reality – is more complicated and both the UK and the remaining EU bloc are facing very difficult times and decisions. Within each side we find hardliners who wish for a clean break, much like in a divorce sometimes one or both parties want to set apart without much dialogue. Paying the fees of a lawyer and getting a divorce agreement signed expediently.
But then there are others who wish for a more gradual split in more friendly terms, also typical of more mature couples who despite agreeing to split also want to remain friends, either for their own sake or for example because they still share common values, or because they have descendants who they need to care for. In this case they may still engage lawyers but will nonetheless be present during legal meetings and may even grab a beer after a lengthy but fruitful meeting.
In either scenario there is likely to be pressure from third parties who may lobby for a hard break or a softer one, depending on the case. Such pressure, if advocating for a hard break, can be unbearable depending on the circumstances, and it risks derailing any ongoing friendly negotiations. The more protracted negotiations are, the more room there is for one of the parties to be exposed to undue pressure and hence the greater the risk of derailment. On the other hand, in a lengthy negotiation those who entered it with high demands may gradually soften them in the spirit of reaching an agreement.
Moreover, while negotiations are taking place both parties are exposed to processes of internal strengthening or weakening that will inevitably have a bearing on the negotiations. It all depends on how strong or weak they entered the process and it also depends on their respective political and economic agendas, although there is always space for the unforeseen and unplanned to happen.
Getting to yes is the end goal of every negotiation and the UK-EU divorce process is no exception. There will be hardliners on both sides, trying to score points in the eyes of their respective domestic constituencies, and there will be those who will call for continuous dialogue and compromise. There may be cracks in the walls and there may be reinvigoration. In the end, both parties stand to lose with a poor or no deal, and both stand to gain with a good deal. Good negotiators know this principle very well, as do great statists.
