On 30 January, Donald Trump greeted his nation – and the world that was watching – with his first State of the Union speech since being sworn in as President of the United States on 20 January 2017. During his speech, he called for the union of all Americans and the end of simmering divisions, claiming that ‘this is the best time to live the American dream’. But his words rarely match his policies, which are not aimed at reducing inequality or making immigrants and Muslims feel welcome, or paving the way for members of the LGBT community to live a better and more inclusive life, including serving in the armed forces. Instead, he continued to defend the ‘great wall’ with Mexico while also promising to keep the prison at Guantanamo Bay open.

 

He then talked about America’s strength, days after exchanging threatening tweets with his North Korean counterpart about the size of their respective nuclear buttons. He also singled out China as America’s main adversary, instead of welcoming it to the global community of nations. Overall he painted a very rosy picture about America, one in which unemployment is a relic of the past and where Americans will rebuild a dilapidated infrastructure with American money, American hands and American sweat. And where America deserves better from its allies who, he claims, have long taken advantage of the US’s predisposition to lead internationally.

But when the President of the United States talks so much about internal union and external strength, without backing it up with convincing strategies and implementation policies, he is, without realising it, projecting an image of a weak America. There is something about nations who have become unsure about their place in the world that makes them want to shout that they are united, strong and confident about their destiny. They need to say it, to shout out loud as if needing to reassure themselves. This is problematic, because American people and other nations are listening and taking note. And what they hear does not match what they perceive. The reality is that domestically, the US faces a state of disunion, while abroad the US seems to have resigned from its long-standing leadership role.

Both are equally concerning and interlinked but in this entry we focus on the foreign dimension of Trump’s Presidency, for it is this that has more serious ramifications for the future of the international liberal order that the US has pursued and led since WWII. For decades, a confident and strong America has led the world with a smart combination of hard and soft power. During this time there have been successes and failures, but one could argue that the net effect on America’s allies and the world at large has been a positive one.

 

As a result, other nations were reassured and ready to follow the leader, while adversaries like China opted to play by the rules of the game rather than seek to overturn them completely. America was thus able to take others on the same journey. But when those nations listen to President Trump today, or watch his actions including the withdrawal of the Paris Agreement or the abandonment of the arms control agenda, they question the US’s true commitment to leadership, and worse, the US’s ability to continue to lead.

Take Trump’s Nuclear Posture Review published only two weeks after his State of the Union speech. This is a document that indicates the US posture towards the possession and use of nuclear weapons. It is therefore a public statement of intentions sanctioned by the President himself. For decades US presidents have successively introduced or adopted slightly different approaches to the nuclear question, but President Trump’s document marks a complete departure from his predecessors, including President Bush junior.

 
It states that the US will not renounce the use of nuclear weapons in response to a non-nuclear attack and cites cyber warfare as a potential candidate for attracting nuclear retaliation. To be sure, the advent of cyberspace as a new theatre of war is very disconcerting and it has in many ways levelled the playing field for less advanced military nations. However, many would argue that implementing a robust framework and policy to countering cyber warfare should be the priority, not threatening to use nuclear weapons against those making use of cyber to undermine US power and interests.

 
The US seems to have lost its compass, or at the very least, it appears disoriented in the eyes of allies and adversaries alike. Trump and his administration do not get everything wrong, for example US allies need to pull more of their weight financially and non-financially when it comes to security. But the US has certainly other ways to achieve this result than to withdraw from its long-standing role. Some may believe that this is exaggerated, that President Trump has introduced changes in rhetoric and tone, but not in substance. This would be an understatement of the tectonic shifts that are underway in the world and which the Trump presidency is facilitating or precipitating.

 
Jami Miscik, CEO of Kissinger Associated and former Deputy Director for Intelligence at the CIA, summed it up very well in a recent poll by Foreign Affairs“Before policy, there needs to be a vision and a strategy. For 70 years our foreign policy vision was to be a bright light for others to follow. Our strength came from our global engagement and from our economic dynamism as a nation of immigrants. We understood that strength at home and leadership abroad were not mutually exclusive. We are sending a very different message to the world today.”