Three key themes will shape international affairs during 2019:
- Growing tensions between globalist and tribalist forces will intensify, shaping international relations and the architecture of the international order
- Great power conflict will become more likely in a scenario of change, shifting alliances, and internationalised conflict in key theatres such as the Middle East and North East Asia
- This will be compounded by political transition across a number of countries during another key election year as well as by the rapid advance of new technology including Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, and ever more sophisticated cyber capabilities
What are the 10 conflicts and events to watch in 2019?
- 2019 will prove to be a critical year for the future stability of Europe: globalist and nativist forces will clash in a number of countries including the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain
- US-China trade wars will continue under a tit-for-tat, action-reaction format, undermining multilateralism and limiting Sino-American collaboration in other critical areas
- US / NATO tensions with Russia will intensify as a result of tensions in Ukraine & alleged Russian election interference and support for separatist movements
- Israel may find itself confronting Lebanon as Hezbollah fighters return from Syria and initiate a campaign of open hostilities
- Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry will continue and their proxy wars in Syria and Yemen will carry on in waves, dragging or antagonising allies and foes
- Global Jihadism will become more fluid following ISIS’s loss of their Islamic State and may morph into a new local insurgency while popping up in other weak states
- The situation in the Korean peninsula will remain very unstable and US-North Korea tensions will likely resume, with the potential to drag in China
- Continued flare-ups in the South China Sea are expected as China seeks to assert its dominance, with heightened tensions increasing the risk of miscalculation
- Risks of a major Venezuelan crisis and civil war will remain high and depend largely on Nicolas Maduro’s ability to keep the military on his side
- Political uncertainty and instability in India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and South Africa as their electorates head to the polls in an increasingly resentful world – Brazil, Mexico and Turkey are other countries to watch closely
